Historical replay · NMR/USD
Numerai's 15-Minute Jump: NMR From $12 to $18.99 in One Candle (October 2026)
On October 6, 2026, Numerai's NMR token went from $12.00 to $18.99 in a single fifteen-minute candle after a completely flat morning, then spent the afternoon swinging between $15 and $18. Relive the jump and the chop that followed.
Numerai is a hedge fund that crowdsources stock-market prediction models from data scientists, who stake its NMR token on their models' performance. In August 2025 the token more than doubled after reports of a large commitment from JPMorgan Asset Management, peaking near $24.65, and then spent most of 2026 between $6 and $11. In September 2026 it recovered to the $11-$12 area.
The morning of October 6 was about as quiet as a market gets. From midnight to 11:30 UTC, NMR traded between $11.80 and $12.15, and most fifteen-minute candles saw less than $20,000 change hands. Then, in the 11:30 UTC candle, it jumped from $12.00 to $18.99 — a 58% move at the peak — on $5.8 million of volume, roughly 300 times the typical candle that morning. It closed that candle at $16.72, already well off the high.
The next candle was almost as busy ($5.2 million) and swung between $15.73 and $18.20. After that, volume settled at about $1 million per fifteen minutes, and NMR chopped between roughly $16.10 and $17.90 for the rest of the European session. In the US afternoon it slipped to $15.25 before bouncing. It closed the day at $16.10, up 32.8%, on $32.3 million of volume — about 16 times its 30-day average and its highest close since October 8, 2025.
This replay shows what a gap-like move looks like in a market that never closes. Notice that there is no price between $12 and $16 where a trader could have bought on the way up — or where a stop-loss on a short position could have filled. Notice too how the high of the jump candle was never reclaimed during the day: the first minutes of a sudden move often contain the most extreme prices, set by orders that get filled at any price.