Historical replay · EUR/USD
EUR/USD's Slow Slide and Two Phantom Spikes (September 2026)
Over twelve days the euro lost 1.8% against the dollar without a single hour of panic. In the same stretch, the chart shows two candles that touch exactly 1.1700 — and almost certainly had nothing to do with the currency market.
For most of early September 2026, EUR/USD sat quietly near 1.16. This replay follows what happened next on Binance's EUR/USDT pair, which tracks the euro-dollar exchange rate around the clock: from an opening price of 1.1596 on September 14 to a close of 1.1392 on September 25, a decline of about 1.8%.
The decline itself is a lesson in how currencies usually trend. There was no crash and no single decisive candle. The biggest genuine hourly move in the window was a 0.58% drop in the 18:00 UTC hour on September 16. The rest came in small steps — daily closes of 1.1477, 1.1449, 1.1382 — until the pair touched 1.1362 on September 24, its lowest intraday level since late June. For a market that often moves less than 0.2% in an hour, that is a significant, steady repricing of the dollar.
The two spikes are the other lesson. At 14:00 UTC on Monday, September 14, one hourly candle shot from about 1.1536 to exactly 1.1700 and closed at 1.1542, a 1.4% wick that reversed within the same hour. Then, late on Sunday, September 20, after a thinly traded evening drift from 1.1526 to 1.1617, the candle that opened at 00:00 UTC on September 21 wicked to exactly 1.1700 again before closing at 1.1492, back below where the weekend drift had started.
Everything about the two spikes points to the venue rather than the currency. Each lasted a single hour, reversed completely and topped out at precisely the same round number, and nothing in the surrounding candles suggests the wider euro-dollar market came anywhere near 1.17. The likelier explanation is a large order sweeping a thin order book on one crypto exchange — possibly a resting order at 1.1700 being filled — rather than any change in how the market valued the euro.
Replaying the window hour by hour is a good way to practise telling the two kinds of move apart. The slide was slow, broad and confirmed across sessions; the spikes were instant, isolated and fully reversed. Anyone with a tight stop on the wrong side of either wick would have been taken out by a price the euro never really traded at.