Learning path

Reading the macro calendar

Inflation reports, Fed meetings, bond yields and earnings season: what moves the whole market and how to read each release.

Every month the same handful of releases move everything at once. This path explains each one with a recent report as the example, and how traders turn the numbers into rate expectations.

Best read a week before a CPI report or a Fed meeting. Finish with the Professional quiz.

1. Headline vs. Core Inflation: Why Markets Look Past Food and Energy — Every CPI report has two main numbers, and the market often cares more about the smaller one. Here is the difference between headline and core inflation, why the Fed watches core, and how to read a report on release day.

2. PCE vs CPI: Why the Fed Watches a Different Inflation Number — The Fed targets 2% inflation on the PCE price index, not the better-known CPI, because PCE covers more spending and adjusts for substitution. Here is how the two differ in scope, weights and formula, why core PCE ran at 3.0% in August 2026 while core CPI was 2.4%, and what to look for when September's PCE arrives on October 29.

3. The Producer Price Index: What Wholesale Inflation Says Before It Reaches You — Published a day after CPI, the producer price index measures what businesses charge each other. Here is how to read it, why "core" PPI strips out trade margins, and what a 1.3% monthly jump in September 2026 did — and did not — mean.

4. How GDP Reports Move Markets: Why a Beat Can Lift the Currency and Leave Stocks Flat — On October 19, 2026, China reported third-quarter growth of 4.5% against a 4.4% forecast. The Australian dollar firmed, Shanghai stocks rose 0.2% and economists cut their odds of a stimulus package. A guide to what a GDP report measures, why the gap to consensus matters more than the level, and how the same number can be good news for one market and bad news for another.

5. Consumer Confidence vs Sentiment: Why Two Surveys Disagree — The Conference Board's consumer confidence index and the University of Michigan's sentiment index both survey households but ask different questions, so they can point in opposite directions. Here is how each is built, why October 2026 gave 91.7 on one and 48.0 on the other, and which parts markets actually watch.

6. PMI Explained: How to Read a Purchasing Managers' Index, Flash vs Final, and What October 2026's 56.0 Said About Prices — A purchasing managers' index is a monthly survey of companies that reads above 50 when activity is growing and below 50 when it is shrinking. Here is how it is built, how the flash release differs from the final one and from the ISM, and why the price components of the October 2026 US flash PMI, with manufacturing at a 53-month high of 56.0, mattered more than the headline.

7. Bond Yields and Stock Prices: How They're Connected, and Why the Link Sometimes Breaks — On October 5, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at its highest since 2002 and the Nasdaq closed at a record. Here's why rising yields usually weigh on stocks, and what it means when they don't.

8. Real Yields and Gold: Why Rising TIPS Yields Weigh on Gold — A real yield is a bond's return after expected inflation, and gold tends to fall when it rises because holding a metal that pays nothing costs more. Here is how to read the 10-year TIPS yield, how it climbed from 1.89% on the day of gold's January 2026 record to 2.95% in October, and why the link can break for a week at a time.

9. How to Read a Treasury Auction: Bid-to-Cover, the Tail and Who Bought, Using the $13 Billion 20-Year Sale of October 21, 2026 — Every week the US Treasury sells notes and bonds at auction, and the results move yields within minutes. Here is what the high yield, the bid-to-cover ratio, the tail and the split between indirect, direct and dealer bidders mean, read through the 20-year bond reopening of October 21, 2026, which cleared at 5.469% with a 2.73 bid-to-cover and a 0.9 basis point tail.

10. The US Dollar Index (DXY): What It Measures and Why Every Market Watches It — The dollar index tracks the US dollar against six major currencies, and the euro alone is more than half of it. Here is how it is built, what moves it, and what its slide from a one-year high in October 2026 meant for gold, oil and stocks.

11. How Markets Put a Number on the Next Fed Decision — "Markets see a 50% chance of a hike" is a calculation, not an opinion poll. Here's where those probabilities come from, how to work one out yourself, and why the change in the odds matters more than the level.

12. How to Read a Fed Statement, Paragraph by Paragraph — A Fed statement is a short text whose meaning lies in what changed from the last one: the economic description, the guidance and the vote. Here is what each paragraph does, why markets compare it word by word, and how the July 30, 2025 statement, with one changed sentence and two governors dissenting, pointed to the cut that came seven weeks later.

13. How Earnings Season Works, and Why a 'Beat' Can Still Send a Stock Lower — Four times a year, US companies report their quarterly results over a few busy weeks. Here's what's in an earnings report, how to read expectations, and why the market often reacts to guidance more than to the headline numbers.

14. Adjusted vs. Reported Earnings: Why One Company Can Post Two Different Profits — Bank of America earned 91 cents a share in the third quarter of 2026 — or $1.08, depending on which line you read. Here is the difference between reported and adjusted earnings, and how to tell which one the market is reacting to.

15. The Options-Implied Earnings Move: What "Options Price a 9% Swing" Means Before a Company Reports — Before every big earnings report, the headlines say what the options market expects the stock to move. Here is where that number comes from, why it is a range and not a direction, and what Netflix's 9% implied move and 6% actual drop on October 20, 2026 teach about using it.

16. Net Interest Income: How Banks Earn Money From the Gap Between Two Rates — The biggest source of profit for most banks is simple: they pay less on deposits than they earn on loans. Here's how net interest income works, why interest rates move it, and why it dominates every bank earnings season.

17. Cyclical vs Defensive Stocks: Why Caterpillar and Eli Lilly Moved in Opposite Directions — Some companies' profits rise and fall with the economy; others keep selling about the same amount in good times and bad. Knowing which is which explains a lot of days when the index is flat but sectors aren't.

18. Market Breadth: Why "Bitcoin Was Flat" Can Hide a Big Day for Crypto — On September 24, Bitcoin closed up 0.01%, yet 54 of 57 large coins rose, with a median gain of 5.3%. What market breadth is, how to measure it, and what it adds to the headline number.

19. Credit Default Swaps: How the Market Prices the Odds a Company Can't Pay — When CoreWeave's stock bounced 6% in October 2026, its credit default swaps were pricing a 60% chance of default within five years. Here is what a CDS is, how to read its price, and why credit markets often see trouble before stock markets do.

20. What Is Distressed Debt? Why a Bond at 80 Cents Moves a Stock — On October 14, 2026, CoreWeave's bonds due 2032 traded below 80 cents on the dollar and yielded close to 15%; the shares fell 16% that day and 25% over the week. A guide to what a bond's price says, why 80 cents is a threshold, and how credit trouble reaches shareholders.

21. Index Reclassification Explained: Why MSCI Moving a Country Can Crash Its Stock Market — On October 16, 2026, Indonesia's stock market fell 11.57% in a day, its worst since 1998, because MSCI proposed moving the country from emerging-market to standalone status. A guide to who classifies markets, what the labels mean, why passive money has to follow them, and how the timeline works.

22. The NAHB Housing Market Index: What Builder Confidence Tells You About Rates, Homebuilders and the Economy — The NAHB Housing Market Index is a monthly survey of US homebuilders that moves homebuilder stocks, Treasury yields and Fed expectations. Here's how it is built, why 50 is the line that matters, and what the October 2026 reading of 29 said.

23. Housing Starts and Building Permits Explained: How to Read the Monthly Construction Report — Each month the Census Bureau reports how many homes US builders began and how many permits they pulled. Here is what the numbers measure, why permits lead starts, how wide the error bars are, and what the September 2026 report, starts down 5.2% to 1.221 million, said about rates and homebuilder stocks.