AI in action · Markets
Goldman: Chip Stocks Now Move Markets More Than Oil
Exposure to semiconductor stocks explained about 54% of the gaps in performance across assets over three weeks, Goldman Sachs found; oil explained 2%. The AI trade has become the market's main risk dial.
Brent crude is trading near $115 a barrel, yet in Goldman Sachs' reading the price that has steered global markets this month is that of chips. In a note dated Monday, October 26, reported by Business Insider, the bank's strategists found that exposure to semiconductor stocks explained about 54% of the differences in performance across a range of assets over the previous three weeks. Exposure to oil explained 2%.
"Tech has become an increasingly important driver of risk appetite," the strategists wrote. Their risk-appetite gauge fell the week before to its lowest level since April 2025, during the selling in AI-linked shares, and then turned with them: on Monday the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 each gained about 1%, Nvidia 2% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index 3%, after Anthropic's IPO filing went public.
South Korea shows the effect at full strength. Memory-chip makers account for about half of the Kospi, which Goldman said had fallen roughly 40% from its June peak, and the bank argued that "memory sector concerns have spilled over to the rest of the market in a broad-based derisking." It estimates that Korean stocks outside memory are more than 30% undervalued relative to their profitability, while cutting its 12-month Kospi target from 12,000 to 9,000, a level it still sees as more than 60% above where the index stood. On Wednesday the Kospi was up 5.84% by 03:00 GMT, according to Al Jazeera.
A single factor carrying that much weight has a practical consequence for diversification. A portfolio spread across countries, sectors and asset classes can still be one bet if most of its holdings move with the same chip index, and a sharp reversal in that trade would reach places with little direct AI exposure. China's central bank governor made a similar observation on October 19, when he listed highly correlated and volatile equity markets among the effects of the AI boom.
Goldman itself remains modestly positive on equities into year-end, citing strong earnings, lighter investor positioning and lower valuations. The test arrives quickly: Microsoft and Alphabet report after the US close on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday, and if chips really are the market's main dial, their capital-spending guidance will be felt well beyond the tech sector.
Sources: Business Insider via Yahoo Finance UK — The AI trade is driving global markets more than oil, Goldman Sachs says (Oct 27, 2026); Al Jazeera — Global stock markets rise as investors continue to bet on AI (Oct 28, 2026)